Grain Producers Australia welcomes the latest crop production forecasts with cautious optimism, recognising variable seasonal conditions across the nation’s major grain producing regions.
Today, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released the June Australian Crop Report, forecasting Australian winter crop production to increase by 9 per cent to 51.3 million tonnes in 2024–25, with planting forecast at 23.6 million hectares.
This production forecast is 9pc above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 47 million tonnes and if realised, would be the fifth highest on record, the ABARES report said.
Full report HERE
GPA Chair, Barry Large, said the ABARES winter crop forecasts were based on above average summer rainfall and timely autumn rainfall that continued to improve soil moisture profiles in Queensland and northern and central NSW.
But he said autumn rainfall has been lower than average across major cropping regions in western Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, where soil moisture levels have remained low.
“GPA recognises the analysis made in this ABARES report and understands that the variability in the seasonal conditions means potential mixed fortunes for Australian grain producers with continuing challenges and opportunities,” he said.
“Australian grain producers will continue to monitor their local conditions closely every day, making critical business decisions based on a range of key factors including the actual costs of production and especially essential farm inputs, pests and disease challenges and grain pricing outlook.
“We note the report’s analysis about the increase in the area planted to winter pulses that’s being forecast to increase by 17pc this year, to 2.5 million hectares, due to positive price signals.”
ABARES Report Highlights
Area planted to winter crops in Australia is forecast to remain historically high in 2024–25, rising slightly to 23.6 million hectares, 6pc above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
A forecast increase in area planted to winter crops in Queensland and NSW is likely to more than offset a fall in area in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
· Wheat production is forecast to increase by 12pc to 29.1 million tonnes, 10pc above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
· Barley production is forecast to increase by 7pc to 11.5 million tonnes, 2pc above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
· Canola production is forecast to fall by 5pc to 5.4 million tonnes, 21pc above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
· Lentil production is forecast to remain steady, at 1.6 million tonnes. This is more than double the 10-year average to 2023–24, with the expansion in area planted to lentils expected to be offset by lower expected yields.
· Chickpea production is forecast to increase by 133pc to 1.1 million tonnes, 46pc above the 10-year average to 2023–24
· Area planted to wheat is forecast to rise by 3pc to 12.7 million hectares
· Area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 3pc to 4.3 million hectares.
· Area planted to canola is forecast to fall by 9pc to 3.2 million hectares in 2024–25.
· Area planted to winter pulses is forecast to increase by 17pc to 2.5 million hectares, driven by increases in chickpea and lentil plantings.
· Area planted to chickpeas is forecast to increase by around 80pc to 730,000 hectares (24pc above the 10-year average to 2023–24, reflecting high expected margins and a favourable start to the cropping season in Queensland and New South Wales).
· Area planted to lentils is forecast to increase further to a record 885,000 hectares, reflecting high lentil prices.
ENDS
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